Quantifying uncertainty in ray-tracing models of radiowave propagation using polynomial chaos

Randomness in the input parameters of a ray-tracing simulator introduces uncertainty in the predictions of the received power and voltage. The polynomial chaos method is applied to efficiently estimate the uncertainty arising from randomness in the material properties for a site-specific ray-tracing analysis of an indoor hallway. The uncertainty is compared against a converged set of Monte-Carlo simulations and with experimental measurements of the sector-averaged received power. Results indicate a 2-3 dB variation in the received power can exist for relatively small material parameter uncertainties.