Multi-scale Predictability of High-Impact Weather in the Battlespace Environment

New capabilities have been developed for the Navy´s mesoscale and global weather ensemble forecast systems. Inclusion of model perturbations is found to have a significant impact on both global and mesoscale ensemble performance. New methods for perturbing the initial conditions provide superior ensemble performance. The ensemble systems provide a probabilistic forecast capability for the occurrence of high-impact weather events, along with expected forecast skill information.