Title :
Forecasting the future car designing trends using the efficient software tool
Author_Institution :
Tampere Univ. of Technol., Finland
Abstract :
Summary for only given. This paper deals with the trends becoming actual in the car model policy during the coming decade. Based on the historical data of the manufactured models it can be forecasted into which direction car design is developing in the near future. Although the real market shares regarding the sold number of cars have not been examined, this kind of analysis is rather reliable as well. The particular analysis should give both for car makers and for private citizens an illustration of the future trends. The manufacturers can see beforehand, on which kinds of models it is worth to focus the production in the near future. As well, the consumers should see which kinds of models will be the most popular ones. This information should also help people to make plans in acquiring a new car. One of the most popular method nowadays is to predict the future behaviour of some events by using KANE simulation. In order to clarify the principles of the method used, a short description of the basic theory has been presented. The results are naturally approximative and they do not necessarily give the extremely accurate trends. Nevertheless, the curves presented characterize very well the behaviours of the particular events. Within only a few cycles of the forecasting process satisfactory results can be achieved
Keywords :
administrative data processing; automobile industry; automobiles; digital simulation; manufacturing industries; software packages; technological forecasting; KANE software tool; car makers; car model policy; design trends forecasting; future car designing trends; future events behaviour prediction; manufactured models; private citizens; real market shares; simulation; Discrete event simulation; Economic forecasting; Predictive models; Production; Software tools; Virtual manufacturing;
Conference_Titel :
Innovation in Technology Management - The Key to Global Leadership. PICMET '97: Portland International Conference on Management and Technology
Conference_Location :
Portland, OR
Print_ISBN :
0-7803-3574-0
DOI :
10.1109/PICMET.1997.653678