Validation of the duty cycle estimate derived from a physical appliance model

Successful application of demand models of consumer loads is based on accurate single customer models. A physically based heating/cooling model that incorporates the influence on the random environment is presented and validated. Physical correspondence is established through the data from four houses used in the Athens load control experiment. Actual duty cycle calculations made from the appliance load data on a heat pump in winter under average and severe weather conditions are matched with the proposed model. Directions of future research and model application to short term demand prediction are included