Title :
Analysis and Forecasting of Oil Demand in China
Author :
Zhang, Chengli ; Wei, Mingguo
Author_Institution :
Fac. of Pet. Eng., Daqing Pet. Inst., Daqing, China
Abstract :
With the cointegration theory, oil consumption, national economic growth, population, oil price, industrial structure, energy structure and technical progress variables are discussed in this paper. By analyses, it is found that cointegration relationship exist among variables of oil consumption, industrial structure, energy structure and technical progress. The error correction model about oil consumption is established. In addition, the data generated process of our oil consumption series is tested. And an autoregressive model with the trend for forecasting oil consumption to 2025 is established.
Keywords :
autoregressive processes; demand forecasting; economics; petroleum industry; pricing; China; autoregressive model; cointegration theory; energy structure; error correction model; industrial structure; national economic growth; oil consumption series; oil demand analysis; oil demand forecasting; oil price; technical progress variables; Biological system modeling; Economics; Energy consumption; Error correction; Forecasting; Mathematical model; Petroleum; autoregressive model; cointegration theory; forecasting; oil demand;
Conference_Titel :
E-Business and E-Government (ICEE), 2010 International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Guangzhou
Print_ISBN :
978-0-7695-3997-3
DOI :
10.1109/ICEE.2010.1274
