Analysis and Forecasting of Oil Demand in China

Author

Zhang, Chengli ; Wei, Mingguo

Author_Institution

Fac. of Pet. Eng., Daqing Pet. Inst., Daqing, China

fYear

2010

fDate

7-9 May 2010

Firstpage

5078

Lastpage

5081

Abstract

With the cointegration theory, oil consumption, national economic growth, population, oil price, industrial structure, energy structure and technical progress variables are discussed in this paper. By analyses, it is found that cointegration relationship exist among variables of oil consumption, industrial structure, energy structure and technical progress. The error correction model about oil consumption is established. In addition, the data generated process of our oil consumption series is tested. And an autoregressive model with the trend for forecasting oil consumption to 2025 is established.

Keywords

autoregressive processes; demand forecasting; economics; petroleum industry; pricing; China; autoregressive model; cointegration theory; energy structure; error correction model; industrial structure; national economic growth; oil consumption series; oil demand analysis; oil demand forecasting; oil price; technical progress variables; Biological system modeling; Economics; Energy consumption; Error correction; Forecasting; Mathematical model; Petroleum; autoregressive model; cointegration theory; forecasting; oil demand;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

E-Business and E-Government (ICEE), 2010 International Conference on

Conference_Location

Guangzhou

Print_ISBN

978-0-7695-3997-3

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/ICEE.2010.1274

Filename

5592891