Reliability Modeling, Analysis and Prediction of Wireless Mobile Communications

The future Fifth Generation (5G) mobile cellular networks that are currently in research phase today enable broad range of services/applications beyond classical mobile communications. One key enabler for Ultra-Reliable services to be integrated into mobile networks is the Reliability of transmission success of a given data packet. This is harder mainly owing to the time-dependent effective link qualities of the communicating devices. However, successful indication of the availability of the instantaneous link quality (e.g., by the device) would allow opportunistic access of ultra reliable services/applications when the link conditions are fair enough. This paper introduces a framework for modeling, predicting and analyzing the theoretical reliability of the wireless link based on factors such as fading, mobility, interference etc. The analysis and prediction is based on the part stress method [1] by assuming time dependent factors as elements/components and their respective Transmission Times To Failure (TTTF). The proposed framework also supports other reliability analysis techniques such as Fault Tree Analysis [2] and Accelerated testing [3] of wireless systems and to improve the components.