Sensitivity analysis and low-dimensional stochastic modeling of shipboard Integrated Power Systems

For design purposes, we use stochastic modeling and sensitivity analysis to identify the most important parameters of the AC power distribution in the integrated power system (IPS) model. The main AC subsystem of the IPS consists of a 59 kW synchronous generator and a motor drive of 50 hp induction motor. First, we perform sensitivity analysis treating all 31 parameters of the full model as stochastic variables. Second, we construct two low-dimensional stochastic models (with 15 and 8 parameters) and compare the multi-rate dynamics of the reduced models to the full model. For parameter variations larger than 50%, the low-dimensional models still predict accurately the mean values but underpredict the variance of most state variables.