Vertical path trajectory prediction for next generation ATM

Current path prediction methodology during climb and descent phases of flight has much larger path uncertainty errors than during the cruise phase of flight. These uncertainty errors are a major concern for development of advanced ATM tools such as arrival and departure managers for regional flow planning and for medium term conflict detection in congested terminal and transition airspace. This paper describes a trajectory synthesis methodology and presents error sensitivity results for trajectory predictions. The trajectory synthesis method assumes the availability of high resolution, rapidly updated wind and temperature forecast data and enhanced ADS downlink of aircraft states and path intent. Trajectory sensitivity for a Boeing 737 aircraft climb profile is used to quantify system requirements and anticipated trajectory precision using this methodology