Title :
Demand Forecasting on Telephone Usage Based Kalman Filtering
Author :
Wongsuwan, Chairat ; Koseeyaporn, Jeerasuda ; Wardkein, Paramote
Author_Institution :
Telecommun. Dept., King Mongkut´´s Inst. of Technol., Bangkok
Abstract :
This paper presents a method of demand forecasting on telephone usage which is based on Kalman filtering. The Kalman filter is a method that provides an efficient computational solution in least square sense. It is thus received much attention for estimation purpose. In order to visualize the efficiency of the proposed technique, it is used to predict the telephone usage demand of Thailand nationwide and only in Bangkok. The data employed in the forecasting process are the former forecasted demand and the number of population during 1954-2003 (for Bangkok area) and 1991-2010 (for nationwide). The result of this method is compared with that of statistical analysis method. It is found that the proposed technique is superior to statistical methods. Furthermore, it employs a simple mathematical process with less computational consumption
Keywords :
Kalman filters; demand forecasting; filtering theory; least squares approximations; telephone networks; Kalman filtering; demand forecasting process; least square method; mathematical process; telephone usage; Closed-form solution; Demand forecasting; Economic forecasting; Filtering; Kalman filters; Linear regression; Predictive models; Statistical analysis; Telephony; Weather forecasting; Kalman filtering; prediction; signal estimation;
Conference_Titel :
Information, Communications and Signal Processing, 2005 Fifth International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Bangkok
Print_ISBN :
0-7803-9283-3
DOI :
10.1109/ICICS.2005.1689210