The role of numerical tools in maintaining reliability during economic transfers An illustration using the NPCC equivalent system model

In this paper we are concerned with the increased complexity facing operators when monitoring and scheduling available resources needed to serve customers without interruptions and at the reasonable costs. Historically, this task has been met by combining human expert knowledge about the specifics of the system with the results obtained by approximate numerical tools for near real-time analysis and assessment of system conditions. The emphasis in this paper is on demonstrating fundamental limits to relying on human decision making due to a highly combinatorial nature and complexity of managing reliability and economics of electricity services in today´s nonlinear electric power network systems. This complexity calls for development of more accurate and quantifiable numerical methods for decision making in such systems. We illustrate the type of near-real time numerical tools essential for implementing such decisions. A comparison of the NPCC system utilization by means of current and future numerical tools is presented.