Research on runoff forecast model based on phase space reconstruction

In this paper, the problem of runoff forecasting is researched for water supply reservoir group based on Phase Space Reconstruction Theory. The statistic method of BDS is applied to prove its non-linearity and the largest Lyapunov exponent is computed, which manifests that there is chaotic characteristics in the runoff sequence of reservoir group. Single-dimensional and multi-dimensional runoff forecast models are built and analyzed based on State Space Reconstruction Theory, Artificial Neural Network and Genetic Algorithm. Their performances in practice are compared and analyzed, which manifests its validity and a broad prospect.