Preliminary forecast methodology for the defense technology and industrial base

This paper reports on the preliminary development of an improved defense technology and industrial base (DTIB) forecasting methodology. The approach examined several noted assessment and quality programs, began with previous industrial base assessment methods, and incorporated current quality perspectives. The methodology augments previous methods by improving the metrics of technology, integrated design, production processes, quality, and modern management and operations methods such as those of lean manufacturing. The resultant DTIB representation was reviewed by government and industry experts. Conclusions are presented. A preliminary set of measurement criteria was developed and sources for the data were established. A larger measurement set is needed to test the validity of the characteristics to represent the DTIB in the forecasting task