Title :
El Nino based intervention analysis of Rainfall in Tamilnadu
Author :
Nirmala, M. ; Sundaram, S.M.
Author_Institution :
Sathyabama Univ., Chennai, India
Abstract :
The El Nino or Southern Oscillation is the outcome of the strong coupling and interactions between the Tropical Ocean and Atmosphere, which plays a major role in the development of global climatic system. In this study, a data set containing the Monthly Rainfall in Tamilnadu and a data set containing the Sea Surface Temperature of Nino 3.4 for 59 years (1950 - 2008) are used to model and analyse the impact of El Nino events in the Annual Rainfall of Tamilnadu through Intervention analysis. The experimental results show that the ARIMA - Intervention model is more precise in explaining and analysing the effect of Intervention events.
Keywords :
El Nino Southern Oscillation; climatology; ocean temperature; rain; AD 1950 to 2008; ARIMA; El Nino Southern Oscillation; India; Nino 3.4; Tamilnadu; annual rainfall; global climatic system; intervention analysis; intervention events; intervention model; monthly rainfall; sea surface temperature; tropical ocean; Analytical models; Correlation; Measurement uncertainty; Ocean temperature; Sea surface; Time series analysis; ARIMA; Annual Rainfall; El Nino; Intervention Analysis; Intervention Events;
Conference_Titel :
Recent Advances in Space Technology Services and Climate Change (RSTSCC), 2010
Conference_Location :
Chennai
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-9184-1
DOI :
10.1109/RSTSCC.2010.5712851
