A process for estimating cost/benefits of future air transportation system operational concepts based on 4D navigation

The aviation community worldwide has been working for sometime to define a vision of the future air transportation system. The overall progress thus far has been primarily at a conceptual stage. This paper integrates a number of operational concepts into a realizable vision for the National Airspace System (NAS). A process is defined to help develop future operational scenarios based on the makeup of year 2020 fleet mix and aircraft avionics capabilities, considering non-scheduled on-demand, charter, travel club, fractional and short-haul intra-city operations. A majority of aircraft are projected to be able to fly via 4D navigation and to assume a larger share of the responsibility for maintaining separation. This would require significant investment in avionics and the automation of the ground system and infrastructure. Cost/benefits analysis is a key portion of the process. Example results are presented to illustrate return on investment over time as more and more aircraft are equipped with enhanced avionics. The operational benefits of 4D navigation operations are derived from reduced air and ground delays determined from the NAS-wide simulation of future operations. The example presented compared the life cycle costs of air/ground enhancements as function of aircraft equipage to ascertain that the overall benefits outweigh the implementation costs over time. The process is based on a number of operational assumptions and likely air/ground system enhancements beyond the currently planned enhancements over next 10 years. The evaluation process presented in the paper can be used to help understand the benefits and limitations of the future operational concepts, and intends to help define an ideal, but realistic vision of the future air transportation system for guiding research cost effectively.