Title :
Monte Carlo simulation for schedule risks
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Civil Eng., Toronto Univ., Ont., Canada
Abstract :
Research was undertaken to assist practitioners in undertaking Monte Carlo simulation of project schedules. A probabilistic model was developed to translate project characteristics into schedule risk boundaries. This model has been tested in several projects and performed very well. Lessons learned during the application of Monte Carlo simulation to a large project are discussed.
Keywords :
Monte Carlo methods; civil engineering computing; construction industry; digital simulation; risk management; scheduling; Monte Carlo simulation; construction engineering; probabilistic model; project characteristics; project schedule; schedule risk; Bayesian methods; Delay effects; Job shop scheduling; Monte Carlo methods; Parameter estimation; Performance evaluation; Productivity; Project management; Subcontracting; Testing;
Conference_Titel :
Simulation Conference, 2003. Proceedings of the 2003 Winter
Print_ISBN :
0-7803-8131-9
DOI :
10.1109/WSC.2003.1261603
