Advanced Opportunity Cost Analysis of 3D Packaging Technologies

Many alternative technologies compete in the 3D packaging, interconnection and assembly of semiconductors. Each competitor claims performance and cost advantages, however yield effects intrinsic to emerging technologies make accurate estimation of manufacturability and cost difficult due to the lack of technology specific data. Changes to materials, equipment, suppliers, customers, as well as levels of technical risk and work-in-progress inventory further exacerbate the problem. The authors present a generalized methodology to assess the opportunity cost associated with emerging 3D packaging approaches. This includes quantitative assessment of manufacturability and yielded cost, even where limited manufacturing yield data exists, in combination with the quantification of various market and logistics cost components. The methodology applies detailed process descriptions to accurately predict practical manufacturing costs. First-principle calculations based on product geometry, process complexity, and relevant known processes then predict yield effects at the unit operation level. Next the authors quantitatively model the additional opportunity cost implications of manufacturing logistics, inventory management and time to market. Further benefit results from using the opportunity cost model to optimize the design and process for manufacturing cost minimization as well as to take advantage of inventory and time to market enhancements to maximize design advancement flexibility and financial leverage including management of margin stacking where compounding of margins from one level in the supply chain to the next frequently results in excessive final cost to the OEM and ultimately the end user community.