Research on the Dynamic Evolution and Driving Factors of the Carbon Emission Capacity in China

China has gotten the world´s attention for its carbon emission. Along with the rapid economic development and the large energy consumption, the carbon emission is also constantly increasing. Therefore, the analysis of the dynamic evolution and driving factors of the carbon emission capacity is of great significance to the low-carbon economy. This paper uses the STIRPAT model based on the time series data of the carbon emission in China during 1990-2004. The results indicate that with every 1% change of the population, the carbon emission will change correspondingly by 1.162%; with every 1% change of the emission intensity and industrial structure, the carbon emission will decrease by 0.407% and 0.116%; and the elasticity index of the carbon emission pressure will gradually rise with the economic developing. The human factors have apparent driving effect difference on the carbon emission, and under the combined action of various factors, the future carbon emission in China will go on rising. It is difficult to control the carbon emission from the above-mentioned human factors.