Risk assessment of smart energy transfer in distribution networks

Dynamic (or real-time) thermal rating (which utilizes actual weather conditions in order to more accurately model electro-thermal coordination behaviour of high voltage conductors) promises to play a vital role in the planning of energy transmission of future smart power systems. This paper investigates the adequacy impacts of real-time line thermal ratings (of different underground distribution network cabling systems), accounting for the following system risk issues: line losses and the risk of aging. The aim is to propose a new technique of assessing the reliability of distribution systems when cable-based line time varying thermal rating (TVTR) is implemented. This technique is illustrated through the reliability performance evaluation of a distribution system under a variety of cabling system configurations: XLPE; EPR and Solid paper insulated power cables; and the nine Standard Duct installation conditions. Concomitantly, the risk of aging the cable assets (RCAI) is evaluated in order to enhance planning decisions. Consequently, these probabilistic assessments reveal that oil pressure pipe-type cable ducting for an XLPE cable type has the lowest risk of aging the asset on the network; while Solid paper type cable installed in a fibre duct will experience the highest aging risk.