Apply Grey Prediction in the Number of Tourist

In this paper, six grey prediction methods, which are GM(1,1), RGM+(1,1), RGM-(1,1), FRGM(1,1), NGBM and Tan modify method, have been adopted to predict the number of tourists in Taiwan. A forecast of the number of tourists in Taiwan from 2009 to 2013 has also been conducted to serve as a reference for the tourism industry and government tourism authorities in formulating policies. The data source is the statistics website of the Tourism Bureau, Taiwan. The number of tourists in Taiwan from 1998 to 2008 shall serve as the estimation basis. In terms of the approaches, six grey prediction methods have been adopted. Through simulation, it has been found that the various models of prediction results are within the acceptable error range. Then, by means of the top five in ranking, the number of tourists in the next three years has been predicted. The prediction results indicate that the first in rank has experienced growth rate fluctuations in irregular patterns, the second in rank will achieve a growth rate of 5.92%-6.03% in terms of the number of tourists in Taiwan in the next five years, the third and fourth in rank are expected to achieve growth rates of 5.42% and 5.35% respectively in terms of the number of tourists in Taiwan in the next five years, and the fifth in rank will achieve a growth rate of 5.36% in terms of the number of tourists in Taiwan in the next five years.