Numeric lightning prediction based on convective indexes at Yangkou Harbor

This paper calculated the 22 kinds of convective indexes and carried out correlative and statistics analysis based on the 1645 samples at Yangkou Harbor from 2001 to 2009. Such convective indexes as pw, ji, si, tt, ssi, tcl_t, dt_58, whose double-sequence correlation coefficients with lightning events range from 0.321 to 0.544, are chosen as lightning predictors, which could effectively distinguish and indicate thunderstorms. Numeric prediction equations are established by means of bio-level logistic regression and mathematical expectation threshold to issue lightning alarms are acquired.