Title :
The application of Grey-Markov combined model for port cargo throughput forecasting
Author :
Liu Shuang ; Tian Lixia
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Econ. & Manage., North China Electr. Power Univ., Baoding, China
Abstract :
In this paper, we proposed a dynamic analysis model which combines grey GM(1,1)model and Markov chain model as the Grey-Markov model to predict the cargo throughput. Because the forecasting accuracy of single grey GM(1,1)model is lower. The Grey-Markov model can improve the accuracy prediction for the cargo throughput. The new combined model has the advantages of both Grey forecasting method and Markov chains forecasting method. Using the data of Qin Huangdao port is conducted to evaluate the Grey-Markov model which shows that the precision of the Grey-Markov model is better than the Grey model.
Keywords :
Markov processes; forecasting theory; goods distribution; sea ports; Grey forecasting method; Grey-Markov combined model; Markov chains forecasting method; Qin Huangdao port data; dynamic analysis model; forecasting accuracy prediction improvement; grey GM(1,1)model; port cargo throughput forecasting; Analytical models; Data models; Forecasting; Markov processes; Predictive models; Throughput; GM(1,1) model; Markov chain; forecasting; port carogo throughput;
Conference_Titel :
Fuzzy Systems and Knowledge Discovery (FSKD), 2012 9th International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Sichuan
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4673-0025-4
DOI :
10.1109/FSKD.2012.6234311
