Title :
A mid-long term load forecasting model based on improved grey theory
Author :
Zhao, Wenqing ; Niu, Dongxiao
Author_Institution :
Sch. of Comput. Sci. & Technol., North China Electr. Power Univ., Baoding, China
Abstract :
Electric power system load forecasting plays an important role in the Energy Management System (EMS), which has great influence on the operation, controlling and planning of electric power system. Grey forecasting model is suitable for load forecasting, because its principle is simple and calculation is convenient in small sample. But there are many limitations. In this paper, a new model for middle and long term load was developed. The proposed approach has been verified by the the historical data of power consumption from 1999 to 2005 in Beijing, and the experimental results show the proposed model has obvious advantages and has comparatively higher prediction accuracy than the traditional grey prediction model.
Keywords :
energy management systems; load forecasting; power consumption; power system planning; electric power system control; electric power system load forecasting; electric power system planning; energy management system; improved grey theory; mid-long term load forecasting model; power consumption; Accuracy; Control systems; Energy consumption; Energy management; Load forecasting; Load modeling; Medical services; Power system modeling; Power system planning; Predictive models; grey forecasting; information filtering; load forecasting; power system;
Conference_Titel :
Information Management and Engineering (ICIME), 2010 The 2nd IEEE International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Chengdu
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-5263-7
Electronic_ISBN :
978-1-4244-5265-1
DOI :
10.1109/ICIME.2010.5478173
