Predicting human papilloma virus prevalence and vaccine policy effectiveness in demographic strata

Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) is a sexually transmitted virus, which can lead to cervical cancer. HPV DNA is found in cervical cancers with types 16, 18, 31 and 45 accounting for more than 75% of cervical cancers. Candidate vaccines have entered phase III testing with the Food and Drug Administration and several drug companies are in licensing arbitration. Once this vaccine becomes available, an effective vaccination strategy is needed. Hughes, Garnett and Anderson have developed a model to predict HPV prevalence and population-level vaccine effectiveness; however, this model does not allow for stratification with time-dependent demographic traits, such as age. With this in mind, we have developed a tool that facilitate s predicting HPV prevelance in a variety of demographic settings and allows for quantification of different vaccination policies.