Techniques and methods for uncertainty management

Uncertainty is inherent in modern day strategic planning. However, there is little consensus in how to define uncertainty, what its characteristics are, and how we should relate these characteristics to the appropriate treatment or management of uncertainty. One way of identifying the different meanings of uncertainty and the techniques used for treating it, is to survey the usage of the term uncertainty and identify the techniques that are used in the context of this usage. Underlying this are two hypotheses. First, the semantic hypothesis: a consistently different usage of words must indicate meaningful differences in definition. Second, names of methods, tools, and techniques normally consist of more than one word. Using a tech mining approach, this paper analyzes methods, tools, and techniques discussed by scientists in the context of different usages of the word uncertainty. Several distinct meanings of uncertainty, as encountered in the scientific literature, are identified and explored in more depth in order to identify the associated methods, tools and techniques. We identify the leading methods for the analysis and management of uncertainty. We examine the relationship between the nature of uncertainty and the types of methods selected by scientists. Our results can be used by practitioners in selecting appropriate methods given the nature of the uncertainties encountered.