Analysis of detection systems for outdoor chemical or biological attacks

This paper presents Sandia National Laboratories´ Outdoor Weapons of Mass Destruction Decision Analysis Center (OutDAC) and, through an example case study, derives lessons for its use. This tool, related to similar capabilities at Sandia, can be used to determine functional requirements for a detection system of aerosol-released threats outdoors. Essential components of OutDAC are a population database, a meteorological dataset, an atmospheric transport and dispersion model and an optimization toolkit. Detector placement is done through optimization against a library of hypothesized attack scenarios by minimizing either the mean or value-at-risk of undetected infections. These scenarios are the product of a Monte Carlo simulation intended to characterize the uncertainty associated with the threat. An example case study illustrates that Monte Carlo convergence is dependent on the statistic of interest. Furthermore, the quality of the detector placement optimization may be tied to the convergence level of the Monte Carlo simulation.