Employing modeling and simulation for disaster response scenario analysis

Many important disaster response scenarios are infeasible to test because they are too disruptive, expensive, or dangerous to actually run. This creates a question: How to plan for potential disasters in the absence of empirical and actuarial data? Modelling and Simulation (M&S) provides a way to structure, quantify, and analyse potential disaster scenarios and their responses. Specifically, M&S can be used to examine the complex interactions among populations, infrastructures, and policies. This paper demonstrates these analytic benefits using an epidemic simulation that synthesizes disparate analytic elements and areas of expertise, explores the dynamic consequences of complex system relationships, and allows for rapid modification and retesting of scenarios. In this example, a pathogen with a quantified infection rate, incubation time, and lethality is released into a human population. The model shows the timing of the epidemic, the load it places on the health infrastructure, and the consequences of ameliorative policies.