Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation Assessment of the Quality of Supply in Distribution Networks

Quality of supply is one of the key priorities in electricity distribution network regulation. The UK electricity regulator, OFGEM, financially rewards and penalizes DNOs with respect to the overall quality of supply they deliver. This is being achieved by focusing on the average quality of supply performance system indices CI and CML. However, focusing on system performance does not necessarily improve the quality of supply of individual customers. Therefore, DNOs are subjected to Guaranteed Standards (GS) of performance, which set supply levels that must be met in each individual case. Failure to do so results in penalty payments. This paper addresses two GS of performance, namely the multiple interruptions and the supply restoration during normal weather standards. It also introduces a framework based on sequential Monte Carlo simulation (SMCS), which quantifies the likelihood of these GS exceeding their specified thresholds, applied to a very large real distribution network