Title :
Adaptive Combination of Forecast With Application to Wind Energy Forecast
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Stat., Univ. Carlos III of Madrid
Abstract :
This article proposes an adaptive combination of forecasts procedure called AEC that tends to be similar to always using the best individual predictor in a time varying environment. Also, a two steps combination procedure is proposed to allow the use of alternative combinations procedures. The idea is, in a first step, to use different combination procedures, with the AEC among them. In the second step, the AEC is used to combine the combinations of the first step and produce the final combination. The proposed procedures are applied to a wind farm where 9 alternative forecasts were available, showing the advantage of the proposals
Keywords :
weather forecasting; wind power; wind power plants; AEC; adaptive forgetting factor; recursive least squares; wind energy forecast; wind farm; Economic forecasting; Load forecasting; Predictive models; Production; Proposals; Weather forecasting; Wind energy; Wind farms; Wind forecasting; Yttrium; Adaptive forgetting factors; Dynamic models; Recursive least squares; Wind energy forecasting;
Conference_Titel :
Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, 2006. PMAPS 2006. International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Stockholm
Print_ISBN :
978-91-7178-585-5
DOI :
10.1109/PMAPS.2006.360292
