Modeling hard uncertainty in rural electrification projects in South Africa using the Shackle model

A conceptualization of uncertainty in decision-making as soft or hard is introduced, along with a critique on how popular decision-making approaches deal with uncertainty. The Shackle model, as applied by Young, is introduced as a way of dealing with hard uncertainty in decision-making. Case studies of distributed generation rural electrification projects in South Africa are then used to identify hard uncertainties in these types of projects. Young´s single criteria application of the Shackle model is placed within a multiple criteria context, and finally applied in illustration to hard uncertainty in rural electrification projects