Risk Sharing of Cascading Disturbances Among Power System Players

This paper describes a formal method to evaluate power system risk and performance indexes, and the contribution and cross impact of several agents and market players during system outages. The method is based on the propagation of cascading disturbances through the power grid topology. Besides intrinsic forced and programmed outages, other issues are treated like security and dependability of protection, breaker failures, and restoration or automatic reclosing after a disturbance. Their joint contribution determines the overall level of continuity at each network node, and liability of each player. The models are based on reachability matrices for cascading outages, adequate to avail the impact of disturbances, maintenance, operating and planning actions from each asset owner and player. The resultant matrix model can be used as a grid failure simulator, to estimate not only continuity and risk indexes, but also statistics like expected energy and demand not supplied (EENS, EDNS) by each player, and loss of load probability and expectation (LOLP, LOLE) of each agent or consumer