An initial simulation model for aiding policy analysis in urban insurgencies

This paper aims to demonstrate the potential for using the system dynamics computer simulation methodology to gain insight into the evolution of insurgencies. In particular, it extends a prior system dynamics model of insurgencies containing the dynamic mechanisms of incident suppression, insurgent creation, and war weariness to also embrace the factors of unemployment, propaganda, finance, and weapons supply chains. Numerous policy simulation tests are then conducted using as a base case a calibration of the model to the Anglo-Irish War of 1916- 1921 to examine the effects of various policies aimed at suppressing insurgencies. The paper suggests that none of these policies - when implemented at achievable levels - will be nearly as successful in stopping an insurgency as a coordinated bundle of all of these policies together. The paper then concludes by proposing how a simulation model might be further developed to assist policy makers in managing current insurgencies throughout the world.