Title :
Integration of wind generation and load forecast uncertainties into power grid operations
Author :
Makarov, Y.V. ; Etingov, P.V. ; Huang, Z. ; Ma, J. ; Chakrabarti, B.B. ; Subbarao, K. ; Loutan, C. ; Guttromson, R.T.
Author_Institution :
Pacific Northwest Nat. Lab., Richland, WA, USA
Abstract :
In this paper, a new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope, including the balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulation using California Independent System Operator (CAISO) real life data has shown the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.
Keywords :
Data acquisition; Load forecasting; Mesh generation; Power generation; Power grids; Statistical analysis; Uncertainty; Wind energy generation; Wind forecasting; Wind power generation; Energy management system; forced outage rate; load uncertainty; power grid operation; wind energy integration; wind generation forecast; wind power; wind uncertainty;
Conference_Titel :
Transmission and Distribution Conference and Exposition, 2010 IEEE PES
Conference_Location :
New Orleans, LA, USA
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-6546-0
DOI :
10.1109/TDC.2010.5484201
