Learning to Predict Driver Route and Destination Intent

For many people, driving is a routine activity where people drive to the same destinations using the same routes on a regular basis. Many drivers, for example, will drive to and from work along a small set of routes, at about the same time every day of the working week. Similarly, although a person may shop on different days or at different times, they will often visit the same grocery store(s). In this paper, we present a novel approach to predicting driver intent that exploits the predictable nature of everyday driving. Our approach predicts a driver´s intended route and destination through the use of a probabilistic model learned from observation of their driving habits. We show that by using a low-cost GPS sensor and a map database, it is possible to build a hidden Markov model (HMM) of the routes and destinations used by the driver. Furthermore, we show that this model can be used to make accurate predictions of the driver´s destination and route through on-line observation of their GPS position during the trip. We present a thorough evaluation of our approach using a corpus of almost a month of real, everyday driving. Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach, achieving approximately 98% accuracy in most cases. Such high performance suggests that the method can be harnessed for improved safety monitoring, route planning taking into account traffic density, and better trip duration prediction