Risk evaluation of coupling fault for power generation equipment

Risk assessment is an important basis for maintenance decision-making. Based on the reliability analysis, trend prediction and condition evaluation, the paper defines a new running vulnerability, proposes a new analysis method of coupling faults consequence, and builds a risk evaluation model of power generation equipment. Firstly, running vulnerability is defined as the product of fault consequences, equipment´s current status and forecasting status, which reflects the risk status more fully than traditional risk index do. Secondly, fault coupling matrix, fault consequence matrix and fault coupling resonance matrix are built respectively by reliability analysis to get the coupling faults resonance consequence matrix. Then, the equipment´s trend prediction and condition evaluation are achieved respectively based on grey theory, and the quantification rules of running vulnerability are presented. Finally, the example of feed water pump´s risk evaluation validates the model.