Network and business modelling under traffic forecast uncertainty: a case study

Uncertainty is a problem for network planning since networks are dimensioned around traffic forecasts looking several years into the future. In this paper we investigate a methodology which can quantify the effects of traffic forecast uncertainty on the network design cost and also its robustness in terms of traffic carrying capability. Both traffic volume and distribution uncertainties are encompassed in the analyses for a case study network topology. Different sized networks are also investigated. The paper concludes by relating this network modelling work to a more general business modelling process under uncertainty.