Multi-agent simulation of NAS infrastructure utilization in the presence of airline policies

The saturation of capacity in the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS) has prompted a massive investment in the development of a modernized air traffic control (ATC) system known as nextgen. The return on this investment is predicated on the availability of increased capacity where and when it is needed by the continuously evolving airline route system. The objective of this research is to develop policies for the design and development of nextgen that avoids under-utilization of ATC infrastructure in the presence of adaptive airline strategies. This paper describes a multi-agent simulation of airline route selection strategies for alternate trans-continental routes. The analysis shows the existence of a natural equilibrium that identifies a trade-off between ATC infrastructure utilization with airline operating costs over a range of alternate route distance, airline cost structures, and airline strategies. The implications of these results for NextGen planning and policy are discussed.