Probabilistic Dynamic TTC Calculation with Decision Tree Classification

The deregulation of power industries has posed a new challenging task for power system engineers in managing the security of the transmission network. Under a competitive environment with an open access to the transmission network, the total transfer capability, TTC is a significant index measuring the ability of a power system in transferring the electric power in a secure and reliable manner. The TTC calculation should consider not only the static but also dynamic constraints, e.g. transient stability, in order to ensure the system security. The main challenge is the computational time which significantly increases due to the addition of the transient stability constraint. This paper examines the TTC of a power system with the consideration of the transient stability by means of a probabilistic approach, Monte Carlo simulation. To enhance the computational speed, decision tree classification, commonly used as a prediction tool for online security assessment, is integrated into the proposed TTC calculation for quick transient stability assessment. The validity of the proposed method is illustrated through the numerical simulation conducted on the IEEE 30-bus test system.