Title :
Bidding Prices Modeling in Colombian Electricity Market using Logistic Regression Model
Author :
Jimenez, D. ; Gallego, L. ; Camargo, M.
Author_Institution :
Res. Program on Acquisition & Anal. of Signals - PAAS, Nat. Univ. of Colombia, Medellin, Colombia
Abstract :
The main goal of this work is to show the application of an econometric model called Logistic Regression (LR) in a study of the bidding prices in the Colombian electricity market. The LR model is used to calculate the statistical significance of some variables of the market and the influence of changes in these variables on the estimated bidding price of Generation Companies GENCOs. The methodology is used to fit the bidding prices behavior of a hydraulic agent considering some exogenous variables such as: hydrological conditions, energy demand, spot prices and competitors behavior. The model obtained with LR shows a good agreement with the real data.
Keywords :
power markets; power system simulation; regression analysis; Colombian electricity market; bidding prices modeling; energy demand; generation companies; hydraulic agent; logistic regression model; Business; Contracts; Econometrics; Electricity supply industry; Electricity supply industry deregulation; Information analysis; Law; Logistics; Signal analysis; Uncertainty; Bidding Prices; Electricity Market; Logistic Regression Model;
Conference_Titel :
Intelligent System Applications to Power Systems, 2009. ISAP '09. 15th International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Curitiba
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-5097-8
DOI :
10.1109/ISAP.2009.5352873
