The condition trend analysis of aircraft key components based on D-S evidence theory

In order to improve and heighten the accuracy of condition trend analysis to key components of aircraft, to grasp their running state in time and avoid accidents, In the beginning, the paper analyze a lot of characteristic dates of running state from a large number of long-term tests deeply. On this basis, two condition trend analysis models: GM(1,1) and ARMA model are established, using these two models to analyze the condition trend of key components of aircraft, and operating the decision-level fusion of the results of the above models with D-S evidence theory. The research shows that both of GM(1, 1) model and ARMA model can predict the condition trend of key components of aircraft, and we can get the better result after using D-S evidence theory fusion. So this paper gives a good trend analysis method, and it has a good value of engineering application.