Operating reserve value at risk

Operating reserve is traditionally determined as a fixed percentage of the peak load or the largest contingency in a system. In this paper, the probabilistic nature of operating reserve is considered. A risk assessment based approach is proposed to analysis the value of operating reserve. In the proposed approach, the value at risk of a power system is first calculated base on forced outage rates of units. Then, according to the values of system outages, the probability of system loss of value is calculated. Considering operating reserve, the reserve value at risk is obtained by comparing the system loss of values with and without reserve at the same risk level. In the study case, data of IEEE reliability test system is used to test the proposed approach