Title :
Optimal weighted combinatorial forecasting model in the airport cargo prediction
Author :
Wang Jun ; Sun Zhihong ; Xu Baoji
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Found., Xuzhou Airforce Coll., Xuzhou, China
Abstract :
According to the characteristics of the airport cargo, exponential curve model, unitary linear regression model and GM(1,1) model for the S individual airport cargo forecasts are conducted with good prediction, while the average absolute error of each model is no more than 5%. According to the criterion of minimizing the three single forecasting models´ forecasting error sum of squares, we establish an optimal weighted combinatorial forecasting model, and use it to forecast the airport cargo with the average absolute error of only 1.73%, which further improves the predicting accuracy of the airport cargo.
Keywords :
airports; combinatorial mathematics; forecasting theory; goods distribution; grey systems; minimisation; regression analysis; GM(1,1) model; airport cargo prediction; average absolute error; exponential curve model; forecasting error sum of square minimization; individual airport cargo forecasts; optimal weighted combinatorial forecasting model; predicting accuracy; unitary linear model; Airports; Atmospheric modeling; Equations; Forecasting; Linear regression; Mathematical model; Predictive models; Exponential curve model; GM(1,1) model; Optimal weighted combinatorial forecasting model; Unitary linear regression model;
Conference_Titel :
Control and Decision Conference (CCDC), 2012 24th Chinese
Conference_Location :
Taiyuan
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4577-2073-4
DOI :
10.1109/CCDC.2012.6244490