An electricity market model to estimate the marginal value of wind in an adapting system

In this paper a stochastic fundamental electricity market model is presented. The model´s principle is cost minimization by determining the marginal system costs mainly as a function of available generation and transmission capacities, primary energy prices, plant characteristics and electricity demand. To obtain appropriate estimates of the marginal value of wind in an adapting system notably reduced efficiencies at part load, start-up costs and reserve power requirements are taken into account. The intermittency of wind is covered by a stochastic recombining tree and the system is considered to adapt on increasing wind integration over time by endogenous modeling of investments in thermal power plants. Exemplary results are presented for a German case study