Study on risk development trend evaluation of the emergency

The risk development trend evaluation of the emergency is an important aspect of the risk assessment, and it is often neglected in the risk assessment. The paper establishes the risk development trend evaluation model of the emergency using Daniel trend function, the gray theory and the fuzzy theory, and makes an empirical analysis of the risk development trend of the urban metro. Analysis shows that the model has stronger feasibility, and the evaluation process has stronger objectivity, and it can be applied to the risk assessment of the emergency. Assessment results show the city´s metro operation risk is currently in critical state, and the subway system can maintain current operation state, which is consistent with the city´s metro operation condition; according to the single subsystem, the quality of the passengers and staff subsystem is in the critical state, and have a great influence on the safety of the metro system, and quality of urban residents and employees must to further be improved in order to reduce the risk of the metro operation system..