Wind power variability model Part II - Probabilistic power flow

The classification of states can be based on power output, "unperturbed wind speed" and wind speed prediction, depending on available data and aim of the wind farm model. The performance matrix in Standard IEC 61400-12-3 can be used as emission matrix to relate wind and power in a wind farm using a hidden Markov model. The wind farm model can be used also as time interpolation between horizons of wind prediction or to account switching events such as sudden disconnection of the farm. The basic workflow to compute a stochastic power flow based in Markov model is presented. A simplified, steady state, quadratic model of the wind farm is shown for justifying the approximation of networks to PQ nodes and the interpolation between states. This quadratic model can be used also to estimate the reactive power for steady state.