Special Nuclear material and critical infrastructure security modeling and simulation of physical protection systems

Over the last decade, the world has faced a rapidly expanding and dynamic threat environment. As demonstrated by the 9/11 and 26/11 terrorist attacks, adversary capabilities have evolved to include advanced tactics and increased militancy. For the Department of Energy´s National Nuclear Security Administration (DOE/NNSA), and other organizations responsible for protecting facilities housing special nuclear materials, this fragile mix of global uncertainty makes nuclear weapon security an important challenge. Sandia, using scientific and mathematic methodologies, is considered one of the world leaders in the design and implementation of physical protection systems (PPS) and VA methodology, in order to reduce the risk to both domestic and international high consequence facilities. Using the Presagis commercial software suite - primarily Scenario Toolkit and Generation Environment (STAGE), a complex simulation engine - the authors have developed a single analyst, Monte Carlo derived, agent decision-based, and event-driven interactive tool to help meet this need. Evaluating risk reduction for critical infrastructure against increasingly complex adversaries requires high fidelity VA modeling tools. Advanced adversary capabilities require modeling complex scenario variables, including multiple attack vectors and dynamically selected targets of opportunity. Large threat profiles with complex character behavior are needed for increasing adversary militancy. Coupled with Sandia methodology, the strength of the tool stems from the decision logic structure and built-in artificial intelligence components. STAGE allows for an inclusive command and control VA model that uses all traditional elements of a PPS (detection, communication, assessment, delay, command and control, response, interdiction, attrition, and neutralization). This paper will briefly describe the effect that the current threat environment has had on the VA process and then outline the role of STAGE in VA mode- ing and new threat reduction methodology. This paper also provides an update to the development of the STAGE tool, as well as a description of future plans to advance VA methodology and integrate STAGE simulation analysis with an existing physical site (the Integrated Security Facility at Sandia - a former Category I facility).