Title :
Equipment spare parts demand forecasting model based on grey neural network
Author :
Song, Hui ; Zhang, Cheng ; Liu, Guangyu ; Zhao, Wukui
Author_Institution :
6th Dept., Shijiazhuang Mech. Eng. Coll., Shijiazhuang, China
Abstract :
Equipment spare parts demand forecasting is the precondition of conducting effective spare parts supporting. Equipment spare parts demand change is the result of comprehensive factors and single model forecasting accuracy is not high. Aim to improve the precision of equipment spare parts demand forecasting, a forecasting method of equipment spare parts demand is proposed using grey neural network based on analyzing the main factors influencing spare parts wastage synthetically. The proposed method uses the grey forecasting model to train the training samples and gets the BP neural network input value, then BP neural network is used to get the equipment spare parts demand results. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method has higher forecasting precision compared with single forecasting model, which verifies the correctness and efficiency of the proposed method.
Keywords :
backpropagation; demand forecasting; forecasting theory; maintenance engineering; neural nets; training; BP neural network input value; equipment spare parts demand change; equipment spare parts demand forecasting model; forecasting precision; grey forecasting model; grey neural network; single model forecasting accuracy; spare parts wastage; training samples; Data models; Demand forecasting; Mathematical model; Missiles; Neural networks; Predictive models; demand forecasting; gray neural network; spare parts demand;
Conference_Titel :
Quality, Reliability, Risk, Maintenance, and Safety Engineering (ICQR2MSE), 2012 International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Chengdu
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4673-0786-4
DOI :
10.1109/ICQR2MSE.2012.6246453