The simulation of land use change by using CA-Markov model: A case study of Tainan City, Taiwan

Recently, urban sprawl becomes common phenomenon overseas and in domestic. Urban sprawl is a discontinuous development pattern and impacts on environment, economic and social aspect, including landscape fragmentation, species decrease, bio-diversity decrease and habitat destruction. Many researches indicate the relationship indeed exists between transportation accessibility and urban sprawl. The raise of transportation accessibility, the serious urban sprawl happened along urban roads which violates sustainable theory. We will use CA-Markov as the land use change simulation to calculate land use change ratio on each land. Furthermore, Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) will then be used on suitability analysis, and the criteria factors including zoning, road, population, limited development area, steep gradient etc. Hence, in order to be reference of future urban planning regulation to control urban sprawl, this paper attempts to simulate transportation network to predict future urban sprawl pattern.