The unconstrained market clearing price forecasting based on fuzzy ANN

Electricity price is the most important adjusting signal in the deregulated power system. This paper analyses the factors which may influence the UMCP (unconstrained market clearing price), then proposes the method of forecasting the UMCP by using the back propagation network (BPN). This paper consider a new factor named supply-demand index (SDI), And using fuzzy technology, which taking the weather, the temperature and the day type into account,enhanced the forecasting accuracy. Used transaction data of American Power Exchange (Calpx) to simulate. The result shows that this method is feasible and promising for UMCP forecasting. The study of this topic is very important to the bidding decision of generation plant and the trade planning of trade centre.