Improvised nuclear device case study: An analytic framework for disaster management

Reducing the casualties of catastrophic terrorist attacks requires an understanding of weapons of mass destruction effects, infrastructure damage, atmospheric dispersion, and health effects. The Federal Planning Guidance for Response to a Nuclear Detonation provides the strategy for response to an improvised nuclear device detonation. The supporting science developed by national laboratories and other technical organizations for this document significantly improves our understanding of the hazards posed by such an event. Detailed fallout predictions from the advanced suite of three-dimensional meteorology and plume/fallout models developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, including extensive global geographical and realtime meteorological databases to support model calculations, are a key part of response planning. This presentation describes the methodology and results to date, including visualization aids developed for response organizations. These products have greatly enhanced the community planning process through first-person points of view and description of the dynamic nature of the event.