Contextual Prediction of Communication Flow in Social Networks

The paper develops a novel computational framework for predicting communication flow in social networks based on several contextual features. The problem is important because prediction of communication flow can impact timely sharing of specific information across a wide array of communities. We determine the intent to communicate and communication delay between users based on several contextual features in a social network corresponding to (a) neighborhood context, (b) topic context and (c) recipient context. The intent to communicate and communication delay are modeled as regression problems which are efficiently estimated using Support Vector Regression. We predict the intent and the delay, on an interval of time using past communication data. We have excellent prediction results on a real-world dataset from MySpace.com with an accuracy of 13-16%. We show that the intent to communicate is more significantly influenced by contextual factors compared to the delay.